Ireland: How close to peace?
By Arun Pradhan and Anne O'Callaghan "The British want war, and they want to force the IRA into ending its cease-fire, hoping that the IRA will then be blamed by all and sundry." So commented Sinn Féin national chairperson Mitchell McLaughlin in the first issue of Republican News for 1996. The article, entitled "On the verge of disaster", reflects a growing despondency and cynicism amongst Republicans towards the role of the British government. Sixteen months after the IRA initiated a cease-fire in August 1994, British and Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) troops have been removed from the streets of West Belfast. However, countless wall murals and graffiti in the area are reminders of the tension. They depict Republican heroes such as Bobby Sands or call for the two central demands of Sinn Féin: "Release all POWs now!" and "All party talks now!" Others use more artistic licence and read "Sniper on hold" or "If you catch yourself thinking like a bigot, join the RUC". MÃchéal MacDonncha, editor of
Republican News and Sinn Féin National Executive member, confirmed the superficial nature of the calm. Speaking in Dublin, he told
91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, "The troops have moved out of West Belfast because that's where the media is. The infrastructure of the British military is still there, fortifications are still there, sporadic raids still occur. In some instances they've even used the opportunity to extend and re-equip their bases."
Preconditions
The British government refuses to agree to all-party talks unless the IRA first surrenders its arms. MacDonncha describes such a precondition as unreasonable. "The question of arms is for the negotiating table. It's for the end of a process when a settlement is reached, not before talks have even begun." Nelson Mandela, meeting with Gerry Adams in June, supported this view. He stressed the importance of maintaining arms even after suspending the armed struggle and entering negotiations with the South African apartheid government. Mounting public expectation and campaigning increased pressure to resolve the deadlock. In November the Dublin and British governments agreed on a "twin track process". The stated aim was for "the launch of all-party negotiations by the end of February 1996". The process involves "intensive preparatory talks" which have proved quite limited, and the appointment of an international body to advise on the decommissioning of arms. This body received submissions from almost all groups concerned before delivering its report to the Irish and British governments. MacDonncha described the formation of the body as a major concession by the Irish side. He told
GLW, "it is highly unlikely that the International Commission would recommend this ludicrous precondition of the IRA disarming before talks". However, the recommendations hold no legal weight, with no guarantee that the British government will act on them. MacDonncha continued, "If the British government sticks to the precondition, you won't have a peace process, just two cease-fires [the Republican one and Loyalist one] — this is a very bleak scenario!"
Excuses
During the Christmas period, Sinn Féin found itself under renewed attack from the British government and Unionists over drug-related killings and beatings. The deaths of several known drug dealers in Belfast prompted further threats to delay all-party talks. MacDonncha characterised this response as yet another excuse. "Much has been made of this, but it shouldn't obscure the fact that British have refused to talk to us for years. "Drugs are becoming a major problem in the North, as they have been in Dublin. Added to this is the lack of an acceptable police force in the six counties." MacDonncha continued, "The RUC is not acceptable to the nationalist community. The only role they've ever had is a repressive one. So there is a vacuum, and unfortunately it's being filled by these actions. "Sinn Féin has stated that we are against such punishments; we don't think that they work. But we also recognise the reality of this vacuum and that communities are extremely worried about the onset of organised criminal elements."
British politics
The potential for all-party talks has been affected by the defection of Emma Nicholson, a Conservative MP, to the Liberal Democrats. This has further reduced John Major's dwindling majority and increased his reliance on votes from Unionist parliamentarians. MacDonncha explained this development, "The Conservatives and the unionists are ideologically close anyway, but now the unionists are flexing their muscle". Thus the British government would be even less open to talks with Republicans. MacDonncha identified another threat from within the British government. "You have people who believe they can defeat the Republican movement in this period by stringing out the process, effectively killing it, provoking the IRA to return to armed struggle — then smashing the IRA with a wave of repression." And what of prospects for peace under a Labour government? MacDonncha answered, "Under Blair, Labor has its most conservative leadership for decades. With this rightward shift they are just toeing the Conservative line on Ireland." Nevertheless, he thought that a Labour government would be a step forward because of the grassroots support for Republicans on a branch level.
Strategy
"The central aim of everything Sinn Féin does in the peace process is to get a united Ireland, to arrive at national self-determination for the Irish people", MacDonncha told
GLW. In terms of Sinn Féin politics beyond this, he continued, "What we want is a completely transformed Irish society. Our ultimate aim is a democratic socialist republic in a 32-county state." MacDonncha described the struggle for socialism and republicanism as integrally linked. "You can't separate them. Irish people could not fulfil their potential, which we see in a socialist way, until the end of partition. Partition has divided the working class in Ireland. Politics is dominated by the national question — when that is resolved, politics will divide more on left-right issues. "We want to see progressive policies implemented in the interim, so as a party we work throughout Ireland on socioeconomic, cultural and environmental issues. People in Sinn Féin would have an overall picture of bringing in a new society, but central to that is completing the struggle for national freedom". In terms of the immediate struggle, MacDonncha stressed the continuing campaign for all-party talks. "Whatever happens if the process breaks down, if the conflict resumes, Sinn Féin's position would still be a peace strategy involving negotiations." MacDonncha acknowledged the pessimistic mood in Ireland, but also talked of a huge feeling of good will. "There's a huge desire for the peace process to be maintained. Nobody wants a return to the conflict. There is a determination there that needs to be mobilised. Internationally it is essential to maintain pressure on the British government. "In Australia, for example, I'd urge people to lobby the British government to protest to the British embassy at their failure to engage in the peace process. It must be clearly seen that if a breakdown in the process does happen, it will be caused by the British government."