Long-range forecasters, analysing AI models and satellite data that was gleaned from the upper atmosphere probes, had warned of the latest developing catastrophic weather event weeks ahead of it hitting us.
“East Coast Low” (ECL) pressure systems are a regular feature of eastern Australia. However, this time, the warnings were that this was possibly catastrophic. Quite a few private weather forecasters made predictions due to the demise of the Bureau of Meteorology, due to staff cuts. These were the agencies ringing the alarm bells.
It had been raining daily, torrentially, intermittently, for six weeks before the great deluge hit. Local agriculture officials warned just before excessive rains arrived that soil profiles showed that the ground throughout the Mid North Coast of New South Wales had already reached 100% saturation and could take no more rain. They said as little as 50 millimetres of precipitation would be devastating.
Where I live in Wauchope, NSW, a town on the Hastings River, people were totally unprepared for what finally unfolded.
There has always been flooding on the Northern Rivers and so many residents were indifferent to “just another flood”.
In the hinterland of all of these larger coastal towns, such as Taree and Port Macquarie, there are dozens of remote villages and towns: Long Flat; Beechwood; Wingham; and Pappinbarra. They become inaccessible at times like this due to their remoteness and the mountain terrain which is criss-crossed by creeks and streams. During extreme weather events these communities are isolated, resilient and self-sufficient.
During May’s largest flood in our history rain in unbelievable volumes streamed down from black skies turning daylight to nightfall at midday. Unrelenting rain accompanied by cyclonic winds at times soon became a scary nightmare as people wondered whether their homes would be inundated by rising creeks and rivers.
As the situation deteriorated, many residents consciously started planning an escape route to higher ground. For many it was already too late, they either became isolated or were inundated.
Roads soon became impassable, people could not get to work, rubbish was not collected, people could not get food and businesses were closed. Everyone hunkered down hoping this would soon end.
Relentless rain
The seriousness of the relentless rain, continuing for days, in its unforgiving and incredulous intensity, was dawning on all of us.
At my home, 150mm fell in one period of six hours, and 300mm fell in one 24 hour spell. Taree, just North of Newcastle, was “Ground Zero” receiving 427mm of rain in just two days. The devastation from this event spread from Woolgoolga to Newcastle and the Hunter Valley.
The amount of rain was unprecedented and record breaking. Above us, 700mm fell on the Mount Seaview farming community, with all the water making its way down the Hastings River.
An estimated 50,000 people were isolated by floodwaters on the Mid North Coast, including this writer: five people were drowned and hundreds of rescues were carried out.
Livestock, deceased and bloated or bedraggled, were washed up on beaches or made their way to higher ground. Farmers reported that livestock were traumatised and sick from being immersed, standing for days in floodwaters. Some have lost weight due to being unable to feed.
Infrastructure failed as it became submerged by floodwaters. The lifeline that is the M1 Pacific Highway was closed due to floodwaters and the North Coast Rail Line succumbed to rising waters as rail bridges and tracks disappeared under a swirling, filthy, brown soup.
The inundation on supply lines to businesses and shops meant food soon ran out. The hundreds of “B-Double” trucks that transport goods to and from capital city markets and distribution centres in regional towns each day came to a standstill. Supermarket shelves became bare, as supermarkets were unable to replenish supplies.
This apocalyptic vision is a small glimpse into the future that faces us all if we do not tackle the complex climate catastrophe that is accelerating while governments dither.
It does seem ludicrous and wasteful that goods from the Mid North Coast have to make their way all the way to city markets 100’s of miles away only to be broken up, sold, distributed, then transported all the way back to where they originated and are consumed.
The size of these weather systems is incredible. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has mapped sea temperatures around the world. The Pacific Ocean is now 5°C above normal average temperatures in many places. The large and intense East Coast Low, positioned off the NSW east coast, drew in large amounts of this warm moist air from across the Pacific. Local radar maps showed a large band of cloud stretching thousands of kilometres from Fiji to the Australian mainland.
Not a 'natural' event
When these moisture-laden streams swirled on to the east coast it was dumped as unprecedented rains as they collided with the land. This is not “natural”; the frequency, size and increasing tendency of these low pressure systems should convince us of that.
But according to the corporate media and some politicians, this was “a natural 500 year event”. Five hundred years ago there were no Western recorded events, as Australia had not been colonised yet.
The environment would also have looked much different. Where I live, the Biripi Nation of long ago would have barely changed their environment. Sub-tropical forests covered most of the area making flooding on this scale impossible.
Settlers, bounty hunters and the vigilantes of last century rounded up hundreds of Biripi men, women and children over parts of the Mid North Coast, including Wauchope, marched them at gunpoint or shipped them in boats to points on the Hastings River, near Port Macquarie, where they were savagely executed in a genocide that was only recently acknowledged.
A plaque on a rock on the river at Blackmans Point is the only recognition of the colonists’ cold blooded murder.
The colonists went to work clearing large swathes of stolen land for farms and established a prosperous timber industry, cutting down the magnificent rainforests after killing and removing the original inhabitants. Today, this agricultural wasteland and clear-felled rolling hills exacerbate run-off from extreme weather events, which are increasing in ferocity and frequency.
Flood peak levels have broken all previous records. Yet the clearing of land and urban spread continues unabated.
Along with a few hundred others on the estate, we were cut off for four days by two creeks, either side of us, that had became deep raging torrents. Isolated, we were surrounded by a huge inland lake that stretched all the way to Port Macquarie, 20 kilometres away.
But during times of adversity the best of humanity comes to the fore. Despite being cut off, the spirit with which residents came together was inspirational. Using social media and swapped phone numbers, residents bartered food for toilet paper, steak for alcohol, nappies, sanitary pads and other needs. Residents had each other’s backs.
They also criticised local government for its shortcomings and suggested solutions for this scenario happening in the future.
Several people with kayaks ferried provisions, including medicines, and food across the floodwaters to residents in the estate, on request and at great risk. The State Emergency Service volunteers retrieved essential orders for estate residents from the IGA supermarket and ferried them across floodwaters to needy neighbours.
There were thanks all round for the way residents and the community had rallied and supported each other, and suggestions that this continue.
We saw the same thing happen in Cobargo, on the far South Coast of NSW, after the catastrophic bushfires, and in the flood ravaged town of Lismore after their destructive flood.
In the absence of effective government planning, it is left to affected locals to cooperate, show solidarity and care for each other. More of this needs to happen at all times, not just during disasters.
The large climate rallies, organised more than a decade ago and those organised by high school students more recently during the Black Summer fires, need to continue to remind governments of the real causes of the increasingly deadly climate events. They remind us that we are all in this together.
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